Concept · The shape of abandonment
The shape of abandoned projects
When do projects die? Why do they die? What does the distribution look like? The empirical shape of abandonment — across code, writing, art, music, business, learning.
Published July 13, 2026 · ~4 min read
The three distributions
When we look at abandoned projects across all verticals, three distributions describe them well. (1) Time to death — how long after starting does the project get abandoned? Log-normal, peaks at 2-6 months, long tail to years. (2) Completeness at death — how much of the project got done before it died? Peaks at 80-90% — the 90% rule. (3) Value at death — how much value would the project have created if completed? Bimodal — either very low or very high.
Time to death
When do projects die? The empirical distribution:
- First month (30% of deaths): the project was never going to make it. The creator lost interest before the first commit / first chapter / first sketch.
- Months 2-6 (40% of deaths): the project was real but the creator's life changed. New job, new baby, new interest. The "I'll get back to it" moment that never came.
- Months 6-12 (20% of deaths): the project was on the polish phase. The 90% rule kicked in. The creator lost interest in the final 10%.
- 1+ years (10% of deaths): the project was on life support for a long time. The creator kept meaning to come back, but never did.
Completeness at death
How much of the project got done? The distribution:
- 0-30% (40% of deaths): the project barely got off the ground. Most of the work was in the creator's head.
- 30-70% (20% of deaths): the project was real but not close to done. Hard to hand off — too much work left.
- 70-95% (30% of deaths): the project was almost done. This is the 90% rule in distribution form. The 41% revival rate is concentrated here.
- 95-100% (10% of deaths): the project was functionally done but the creator never declared it done. The "I'll release it next week" that never came.
Why the shape matters
The shape tells you where to focus your revival efforts. Most revival opportunities are in the 70-95% bucket — projects that are almost done, that just need someone to push them across the finish line. The 0-30% bucket is mostly noise. The 95-100% bucket is mostly "just declare it done." The middle is where BreakPoint lives.
Frequently asked questions
When do projects die?
Log-normal distribution, peaks at 2-6 months.
Why do projects die?
Loss of interest, life events, scope creep, the 90% rule, wrong assumption, cost > value.
What does the distribution look like?
Log-normal time to death, peaked at 80-90% completeness, bimodal value.